This past week equity markets rose as the underlying S&P index climbed 2.20 %. Above, the September S&P futures contract rose 1.92% for the week. During this rally we were able to step-in for a quick day-trade on Tuesday and a 3.4% gain.
Moving forward we still believe bias remains strong, for a downward move and therefore, we are poised for a short-term downward move.
Oil made a big move this week on the back of tensions in the Middle East. The August contract, pictured above, was up 8.83% for the week. We are currently Long the August contract from $55.50.
Although, we believe the longer term trend in Oil is upward, it would not be surprising to see some consolidation occur this week. We will be looking to remain with our current trade, with an eye towards protecting our current open-profits.
It was an active week in the Gold market as the August contract, pictured above, moved up 4.14%. This move was in conjunction with a rise in world tensions. We entered three trades this week in gold with the first two being closed-out at break-even while the third resulted in a 7.5% gain.
We like the strength Gold has been showing recently and we are looking for continued strength in the week ahead.
Agricultural futures were Flat to Lower this week as September Wheat, pictured above, was off -2.08% and November Soybeans climbed a very modest .42%. We were not active in these markets this past week.
Going forward next week, we are looking for further declines as the spring planting season gives way to the summer growing season.
This past week we saw the S&P tread water moving up only .54%. We continue to see a negative bias in this market as momentum favors downward moves. This week we’ll be watching for the development of a downward trade.
Crude began a move earlier in the week prompted by tanker attacks in the Gulf of Oman, but then quickly retreated as tensions eased and continued concerns regarding the health of the world economy lingered. We had entered a trade on this move but later exited at breakeven. We will continue to monitor this market for further moves amid Middle East tensions.
The agricultural markets remained volatile this week, amid spring planting concerns. Soybeans moved up 4.59% while Wheat gained 6.39%. Depicted above is the move in Soybeans this week, during which we were able to capture an 8% profit. We will continue to monitor the agricultural markets for potential trades during this volatile planting season.
We enter the week Flat in all markets but are watching the following opportunities:
Gold has begun to show signs of life lately with resistance levels being approached which have been in place since 2014. We entered a nice trade earlier in the week and will continue to look for opportunities on the upside. In the immediate future we are looking for a break above 1361 to re-enter.
We will continue to watch the Agriculturals for trades as the US planting season continues. Currently we are looking for a break above 529 to go Long or a collapse below 487 to enter a Short trade.
We believe the S&P will continue to be volatile as it is lead by headlines and tweets. Although it may show temporary signs of strength, our models have the S&P breaking below 2830 in the not too distant future and therefore we are favoring Short S&P trades over Long ones at this point in time.
The recent advance in the June S&P contract ran into consolidation as investors became uncertain amid continued political trade uncertainties. I took profits this week and remain on the sidelines awaiting the next market move.
This week the S&P remained range-bound with a brief move to the downside on Thursday. We were able to enter the market for a day trade & capture profits during this brief move but remain Flat today looking for a major move in either direction.
With support established around 2552 and resistance at 2680 being repeatedly tested, the market appears to be setting-up for a move higher. The question is will this market desire to move higher out-weigh the influence of world political events.