The Week Ahead for June 16, 2019

S&P June 2019 Contract

This past week we saw the S&P tread water moving up only .54%. We continue to see a negative bias in this market as momentum favors downward moves. This week we’ll be watching for the development of a downward trade.

Light Sweet Crude (August Contract)

Crude began a move earlier in the week prompted by tanker attacks in the Gulf of Oman, but then quickly retreated as tensions eased and continued concerns regarding the health of the world economy lingered. We had entered a trade on this move but later exited at breakeven. We will continue to monitor this market for further moves amid Middle East tensions.

Soybeans (November 2019 Contract)

The agricultural markets remained volatile this week, amid spring planting concerns. Soybeans moved up 4.59% while Wheat gained 6.39%. Depicted above is the move in Soybeans this week, during which we were able to capture an 8% profit. We will continue to monitor the agricultural markets for potential trades during this volatile planting season.

Have a great week in the markets.

The Month In Review

The month of May was an active one across many of the markets we trade.

S&P
Amid continued uncertainties, stock markets remained volatile. These uncertainties are due in part to trade uncertainties and increasing skepticism that the current ‘Bull Market’ (I put this in quotes because I believe we are no longer in a bull market, but that is a story for another day.) will continue. Over the past month the S&P June contract declined 6.65%.

US Treasury Bonds

Amid the uncertainty, investors are clearly seeking the security of the US Treasury market. US 30 year (June Contract) rose 4.63% in May.

Light Sweet Crude

Crude lost 14.95% (July 2019 contract) as initial supply concerns eventually gave-way to nervousness over trade uncertainties.

Agriculturals

Flooding in the US midwest has delayed planting and therefore created concerns about this years supply of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat. We have concentrated most of our trading on the Wheat market (July 2019 Contract) this month which rose 16.98%.

During the month of June we will continue to watch for opportunities in these markets as well as Gold which has been heating-up recently.

The Week Ahead

After a very active week trading the Agricultural markets last week, we are looking for opportunities to present them in the S&P and Crude Oil markets.

S&P June 2019 Contract
After a range suppression at the end of the week, as traders prepared to leave for the Memorial Day weekend, we are expecting recent news-driven volatility to resume this week. With this in mind we are looking for a move above 2870 to go Long and 2799 to go Short.
Light Crude July 2019 Contract
Crude is due for a move so we will be watching $61.30 to go Long and $57.25 to go Short.

Have a great week in the markets!

Pre-Market Set-up for May 14, 2019

US Treasury Bonds – June 2019 Contract
With recent strength in the Treasury Bond Market, we are looking for an entry point above 150.
Soybeans – July 2019 Contract
We believe the recent sell-off in Soybeans has been overdone and are looking for a bounce upward.
We are looking for a Long entry point above 818.75.
Gold – June 2019 Contract
Gold has been showing strength recently and although we recently took profits on a trade, we will be interested in re-entering this market if strength persists above 1315.00.

Post-Market Wrap-up – May 13, 2019

It was a turbulent day in the markets, as the Chinese announced their retaliatory responses to the tariffs imposed by the US on Friday. Below are our trades for the day.

Wheat – July 2019 Contract (10% Daily Return)
A nice recovery in the price of wheat allowed us to get in for a day trade. We were able to enter and exit for a 10% daily return.
S&P June 2019 Contract (3.4% Daily Return)
With the large overnight plunge in the S&P and the continued pressure to the downside, we had a Sell signal hit and were able to enter the market for a Short which netted a 3.4% daily return.

Pre-Market Set-up for Monday May 13, 2019

We are watching the following markets on this trading day:

S&P – June 2019 Contract
Having fallen over 2% this past week amid concerns over trade negotiations between the US & China, I believe this market will enter into a consolidation pattern this week. If I am correct and the market moves sideways, we will remain on the sidelines. If, however, the S&P shows strength and trades above 2930 (above the current area of congestion) or continues to breakdown and trades below 2826 (breaking the current levels of support), we will be looking to enter the market for a trade.





Soybeans – July 2019 Contract
Amid trade talk concerns, Soybeans fell 3.92% over the past week. Based on market fundamentals, this sell-off has been over-done and I am looking for a retracement of these looses to fill-in the gap left at 336 – 340. I will be looking to enter this market on the Long side if it recovers above 806.00.


Wheat – July 2019 Contract
Similar to Soybeans, Wheat has been a casualty of the current US-China trade talks. I am looking for a recovery above 438.00 to enter this market on the Long side.


Crude Oil – WTI July 2019 Contract
Amid growing world tensions and strong demand, Crude is trending upward. I am looking for a push above 63.00 where we will be looking to go Long.

Crude Oil Shows Strength

Coming off of last week’s two day OPEC + Russia meeting where the decision was to pull 1.2 million barrels of oil daily from the markets, Light Sweet Crude has begun to show strength.  The proof of this agreement will however ‘be in the pudding’, as we wait to see if each of the parties involved, uphold their end of the agreement.

Over the past couple of weeks, Crude has tested the $50 level but failed to close below it.  Therefore from a trading standpoint we are looking for a breakdown below $50 or a meaningful push above the $55 level.