This past week we saw the S&P tread water moving up only .54%. We continue to see a negative bias in this market as momentum favors downward moves. This week we’ll be watching for the development of a downward trade.
Crude began a move earlier in the week prompted by tanker attacks in the Gulf of Oman, but then quickly retreated as tensions eased and continued concerns regarding the health of the world economy lingered. We had entered a trade on this move but later exited at breakeven. We will continue to monitor this market for further moves amid Middle East tensions.
The agricultural markets remained volatile this week, amid spring planting concerns. Soybeans moved up 4.59% while Wheat gained 6.39%. Depicted above is the move in Soybeans this week, during which we were able to capture an 8% profit. We will continue to monitor the agricultural markets for potential trades during this volatile planting season.
We enter the week Flat in all markets but are watching the following opportunities:
Gold has begun to show signs of life lately with resistance levels being approached which have been in place since 2014. We entered a nice trade earlier in the week and will continue to look for opportunities on the upside. In the immediate future we are looking for a break above 1361 to re-enter.
We will continue to watch the Agriculturals for trades as the US planting season continues. Currently we are looking for a break above 529 to go Long or a collapse below 487 to enter a Short trade.
We believe the S&P will continue to be volatile as it is lead by headlines and tweets. Although it may show temporary signs of strength, our models have the S&P breaking below 2830 in the not too distant future and therefore we are favoring Short S&P trades over Long ones at this point in time.
The month of May was an active one across many of the markets we trade.
S&P Amid continued uncertainties, stock markets remained volatile. These uncertainties are due in part to trade uncertainties and increasing skepticism that the current ‘Bull Market’ (I put this in quotes because I believe we are no longer in a bull market, but that is a story for another day.) will continue. Over the past month the S&P June contract declined 6.65%.
US Treasury Bonds
Amid the uncertainty, investors are clearly seeking the security of the US Treasury market. US 30 year (June Contract) rose 4.63% in May.
Light Sweet Crude
Crude lost 14.95% (July 2019 contract) as initial supply concerns eventually gave-way to nervousness over trade uncertainties.
Flooding in the US midwest has delayed planting and therefore created concerns about this years supply of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat. We have concentrated most of our trading on the Wheat market (July 2019 Contract) this month which rose 16.98%.
During the month of June we will continue to watch for opportunities in these markets as well as Gold which has been heating-up recently.