Yesterday saw a continuation of Tuesdays strength but I feel the market will take a breather here so I have taken profits on this trade.
TBonds – Closing-out Tuesday’s Trade
Watching Bonds for Continued Strength or Fail to the Downside
We are watching the June 30 Year Bond contract for a continuation of yesterdays strength. If it breaks down, we’ll be looking to enter around 178.
Agriculturals Showing Weakness
On the back of recent weakness, we are watching for a conviction break below 3.13 in the July Wheat Contract.
The Week Ahead for June 24, 2019
This past week equity markets rose as the underlying S&P index climbed 2.20 %. Above, the September S&P futures contract rose 1.92% for the week. During this rally we were able to step-in for a quick day-trade on Tuesday and a 3.4% gain.
Moving forward we still believe bias remains strong, for a downward move and therefore, we are poised for a short-term downward move.
Oil made a big move this week on the back of tensions in the Middle East. The August contract, pictured above, was up 8.83% for the week. We are currently Long the August contract from $55.50.
Although, we believe the longer term trend in Oil is upward, it would not be surprising to see some consolidation occur this week. We will be looking to remain with our current trade, with an eye towards protecting our current open-profits.
It was an active week in the Gold market as the August contract, pictured above, moved up 4.14%. This move was in conjunction with a rise in world tensions. We entered three trades this week in gold with the first two being closed-out at break-even while the third resulted in a 7.5% gain.
We like the strength Gold has been showing recently and we are looking for continued strength in the week ahead.
Agricultural futures were Flat to Lower this week as September Wheat, pictured above, was off -2.08% and November Soybeans climbed a very modest .42%. We were not active in these markets this past week.
Going forward next week, we are looking for further declines as the spring planting season gives way to the summer growing season.
Have a great week in the markets!
The Week Ahead for June 16, 2019
This past week we saw the S&P tread water moving up only .54%. We continue to see a negative bias in this market as momentum favors downward moves. This week we’ll be watching for the development of a downward trade.
Crude began a move earlier in the week prompted by tanker attacks in the Gulf of Oman, but then quickly retreated as tensions eased and continued concerns regarding the health of the world economy lingered. We had entered a trade on this move but later exited at breakeven. We will continue to monitor this market for further moves amid Middle East tensions.
The agricultural markets remained volatile this week, amid spring planting concerns. Soybeans moved up 4.59% while Wheat gained 6.39%. Depicted above is the move in Soybeans this week, during which we were able to capture an 8% profit. We will continue to monitor the agricultural markets for potential trades during this volatile planting season.
Have a great week in the markets.
The week Ahead for June 9, 2019
We enter the week Flat in all markets but are watching the following opportunities:
Gold has begun to show signs of life lately with resistance levels being approached which have been in place since 2014. We entered a nice trade earlier in the week and will continue to look for opportunities on the upside. In the immediate future we are looking for a break above 1361 to re-enter.
We will continue to watch the Agriculturals for trades as the US planting season continues. Currently we are looking for a break above 529 to go Long or a collapse below 487 to enter a Short trade.
We believe the S&P will continue to be volatile as it is lead by headlines and tweets. Although it may show temporary signs of strength, our models have the S&P breaking below 2830 in the not too distant future and therefore we are favoring Short S&P trades over Long ones at this point in time.
The Month In Review
The month of May was an active one across many of the markets we trade.
S&P
Amid continued uncertainties, stock markets remained volatile. These uncertainties are due in part to trade uncertainties and increasing skepticism that the current ‘Bull Market’ (I put this in quotes because I believe we are no longer in a bull market, but that is a story for another day.) will continue. Over the past month the S&P June contract declined 6.65%.
US Treasury Bonds
Amid the uncertainty, investors are clearly seeking the security of the US Treasury market. US 30 year (June Contract) rose 4.63% in May.
Light Sweet Crude
Crude lost 14.95% (July 2019 contract) as initial supply concerns eventually gave-way to nervousness over trade uncertainties.
Agriculturals
Flooding in the US midwest has delayed planting and therefore created concerns about this years supply of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat. We have concentrated most of our trading on the Wheat market (July 2019 Contract) this month which rose 16.98%.
During the month of June we will continue to watch for opportunities in these markets as well as Gold which has been heating-up recently.
The Week Ahead
After a very active week trading the Agricultural markets last week, we are looking for opportunities to present them in the S&P and Crude Oil markets.
After a range suppression at the end of the week, as traders prepared to leave for the Memorial Day weekend, we are expecting recent news-driven volatility to resume this week. With this in mind we are looking for a move above 2870 to go Long and 2799 to go Short.
Crude is due for a move so we will be watching $61.30 to go Long and $57.25 to go Short.
Have a great week in the markets!
Post-Market Wrap-up for May 14, 2019
Soybeans and Wheat rebounded sharply on bullish crop planting reports.
We were able to capitalize on the Soybean move to reap a 2.1% daily return.
Pre-Market Set-up for May 14, 2019
With recent strength in the Treasury Bond Market, we are looking for an entry point above 150.
We believe the recent sell-off in Soybeans has been overdone and are looking for a bounce upward.
We are looking for a Long entry point above 818.75.
Gold has been showing strength recently and although we recently took profits on a trade, we will be interested in re-entering this market if strength persists above 1315.00.